Oil just settled at its highest since May — as a report says the U.S. and Israel have drawn up post-midterm strike plans for Iran

The market day

Wall Street had its roughest session in months on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.2 per cent — its worst day since July — to close at 7,663.43, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.6 per cent, according to MarketWatch and The Guardian. Meta Platforms fell 7 per cent after earnings, chip-equipment maker Lam Research dropped 11.8 per cent after warning of supply-chain constraints into 2027, Nvidia slid 4.4 per cent and CoreWeave fell 10.1 per cent. Markets in Asia and Europe declined too: South Korea's Kospi lost 3.5 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei 2.7 per cent. Oil moved the other way. Brent crude rose 4 per cent to settle at $113.17 a barrel — its highest settlement since May 4, according to MarketWatch — though still 4.4 per cent below the year's closing high of $118.35. Prices sat below $97 at the start of October.

The report behind the move

The New York Times reported Wednesday that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections, citing U.S. officials and others briefed on the discussions, TBS News reported. The plans call for a short, intensive operation — some planners believe three days of strikes — against Iran's nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile-and-drone stockpiles. The two militaries have stepped up exercises, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. Some officials said refineries would be spared so as not to push gasoline prices higher; Iran has threatened its own retaliation, including strikes on data centers and undersea internet cables. Nothing has been approved, and Trump has repeatedly vetoed a return to major combat this year. A White House official told the Times the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist." Trump told reporters Wednesday: "Most people seem to think it's after the election, we're gonna see what happens."

The Canadian angle

For Canadians, the number that matters is at the pump. Every dollar on crude lands in gasoline prices, and Brent's $16 climb this month is more inflation pressure ahead of the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision — six days away. For Alberta's producers, prices above $110 are a windfall; for everyone else, it's pain at the pump. Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December, according to Yahoo Finance, as higher energy costs feed rate-hike expectations on both sides of the border.