The Bank of Canada is now expected to hike rates on Oct. 28 — and hike again by spring

The Bank of Canada is now expected to raise its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50% on Oct. 28 — and to hike once more by the end of March — according to a Reuters poll of economists published Friday.

Nineteen of the 34 economists surveyed between Oct. 21 and 23, or 56%, said the bank will hike next week in what would be its first move in a year, Reuters reported. The poll follows September's inflation print of 3.1% and a Bank of Canada business outlook survey that showed sharply rising inflation expectations.

Rate markets have moved fast. Interest-rate futures have gone from pricing a roughly 30% chance of an October hike to around a three-in-four likelihood, Reuters reported, and many economists changed their call from hold to hike this week after remarks from Governor Tiff Macklem that markets read as a hint a rise is coming.

"The survey responses… suggest there are more serious inflationary pressures coming," said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, who told Reuters the business outlook and consumer surveys also reshaped Macklem's own tone in weekend remarks.

The bank's quarterly inflation forecasts, also due next week, are likely to be revised higher, Reuters reported. Inflation rose to 3.1% in September, just above the bank's 1% to 3% target range, and the survey responses came amid a recent breakdown in trade talks with the United States, Canada's main export destination.

What it means for Canadians

A hike to 2.50% would flow quickly into variable-rate mortgages, lines of credit and business borrowing — and it comes just ahead of the big mortgage-renewal wave. It would also give the loonie some support against a U.S. dollar, with markets watching the Fed's own meeting next week.