TSX climbs as Canadian bond yields ease and markets cut October Bank of Canada hike odds to about 28%

TORONTO — Canada’s main stock index rose on Tuesday as energy shares advanced and government bond yields eased, while traders continued to dial back expectations of a Bank of Canada rate increase later this month, Reuters reported via MarketScreener.

By mid-morning Eastern Time, the S&P/TSX Composite was up about 0.4 per cent near 35,799. Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell roughly 2.3 basis points to about 3.855 per cent, while the comparable U.S. 10-year yield slipped near 5.20 per cent. Matt Skipp, president at SW8 Asset Management, told Reuters markets sense that “bond yields have peaked short term,” helping equities more than other factors on the day.

Energy led the advance even as oil prices were softer. Natural-gas solutions firm Enerflex jumped about 13.3 per cent after securing a major data-centre power project that lifted its behind-the-meter generation backlog above 1.75 gigawatts through 2028, Reuters said. Materials fell about 2.1 per cent as silver dropped; technology rose about 1 per cent, helped by a roughly 4.1 per cent gain in Shopify. Financials added about 0.8 per cent.

The tone follows Friday’s Labour Force Survey, which showed Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September and pushed unemployment to 6.5 per cent. Wealth Professional reported LSEG-calculated odds of a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 fell to about 25 per cent from roughly 40 per cent after that release; Reuters’ Tuesday market wrap put the chance near 28 per cent.

TD Economics expects the Bank to stay on hold in October, while Capital Economics still sees a path toward the midpoint of the Bank’s 2.25-to-3.25 per cent neutral range to guard against energy and food inflation, according to notes summarized by Benefits and Pensions Monitor. September inflation and the Bank’s business and consumer surveys are due Oct. 19, ahead of the Oct. 28 decision.

Investors are also watching the start of U.S. bank earnings and a global semiconductor selloff tied to reports that China’s CXMT is narrowing the memory-chip technology gap. Markets are pricing at least one more 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike by year-end, LSEG data cited by Reuters showed.

This article is general information for Canadian readers and is not investment advice.

Sources: Reuters via MarketScreener (Oct. 13, 2026); Wealth Professional (Oct. 13, 2026); Benefits and Pensions Monitor (Oct. 13, 2026).