Trump closes the midterm campaign at the Lincoln Memorial — with 20 minutes on the Reflecting Pool first

President Donald Trump delivered his closing argument before Tuesday's midterm elections on Monday afternoon at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington — and spent the opening stretch of the speech talking about the pool itself.

The Associated Press reported that Trump devoted more than 20 minutes at the top of his remarks to the renovation, announcing the pool's official reopening, joking that he wanted to name it after himself, and holding up blown-up photographs of rusted pipes found during the repair work. He then turned to his midterm pitch, defending his record and attacking Democratic nominees.

The White House had billed the address as the president's closing message before the Nov. 3 vote, in which he would highlight his administration's accomplishments and the record of congressional Republicans. Instead of travelling to competitive states on the final day, Trump stayed in Washington and was also scheduled to join nine tele-rallies for Republican candidates.

What he said about the race

Trump acknowledged the historical headwind facing his party, saying Republicans "gave this a very strong shot" while noting that historically "the president's party doesn't win the midterms," according to NBC News' reporting of the speech.

He also said a deal with Iran "could happen," as voters weigh the impact of the eight-month war on their ballots. And he repeated his claim that Alaska's Senate race is a "fraudulent election," alleging Democrats conspired to put a fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot — a claim a judge has already blocked Trump from pursuing through a lawsuit seeking to void the result if the Republican incumbent does not win.

The polls and the stakes

The final stretch arrives with polls pointing against the president's party. An NBC News poll released Sunday put Trump's approval at 40 per cent, with 60 per cent disapproving, and pointed to high prices worsened by the war against Iran. The final New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday evening showed Democratic candidates leading in all seven seats viewed as most competitive, though five remained within the margin of error.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested Tuesday. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, and polls suggest they are near certain to win the House majority, which would impose political constraints on Trump for the first time in two years.

Democrats closed with their own rallies Monday, including Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas, and Abdul El-Sayed campaigning across Michigan.

Why Canadians should watch

The outcome reaches well beyond Washington. A Congress controlled by Democrats could constrain Trump's tariff and trade agenda — the same agenda that has defined Canada-U.S. relations through the trade war — while a Republican hold would leave his approach intact. The Iran war's effect on energy prices, already felt at Canadian pumps, is also on the ballot in voters' minds: Trump told supporters in Kansas on Sunday that once the war ends, gas prices would fall to levels "you've never seen before."

Early voting has already set a record, with 54 million ballots cast before Election Day, according to reports Monday.