Quebec leaders make final pitches as last campaign poll points to a PQ minority

Quebec's five main party leaders spent the last full day of the provincial campaign on Sunday chasing undecided voters, with the Parti Québécois heading into Monday's election as the clear front-runner and its rivals warning against a party that has promised a sovereignty referendum before the end of its first term.

PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon cast the vote as a chance to turn the page on eight straight years of Coalition Avenir Québec government. "I hope that tomorrow there will be a significant change in direction, and I think that's what the people of Quebec are expecting," he said, according to a Canadian Press report carried by CBC News. He spent the day in the Montreal region, long a weak spot for the PQ, hoping to flip seats. He has said his first 100 days would focus on a special budget for homelessness, cutting red tape, abolishing taxes on used goods, lowering the gas tax and reinvesting in community groups and food banks.

A final campaign poll released Sunday suggested he is on track to win, though probably without a majority. Pallas Data's last survey put the PQ at 29 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the Liberals at 24, Éric Duhaime's Conservatives at 20, the CAQ at 15 and Québec solidaire at 11. "The PQ will almost certainly form the next government. A minority is the likelier result, but a majority is not out of reach if turnout breaks their way and their campaign organization outperforms the other parties," said Pallas CEO Joseph Angolano. The interactive voice response poll of 1,137 Quebec adults was conducted Oct. 3 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The same poll shows how fragmented the map has become. The Conservatives led the Quebec City region at 35 per cent, the PQ led among francophones at 36 per cent, and the Liberals led on the Island of Montreal at 33 per cent and among non-francophones at 47 per cent. St-Pierre Plamondon topped the best-premier question at 28 per cent, but more respondents viewed him unfavourably than favourably. "Voters are choosing the party over the man, and his own ratings are likely what stands between the PQ and a majority," Angolano said.

CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette, whose party has been trailing, spent part of the day door-knocking in Trois-Rivières, where she is running for a seat. She pitched the CAQ as the only alternative to the sovereigntist-federalist divide and said she regretted not putting more emphasis on the threat of a referendum. "There will be impacts because uncertainty will become part of Quebec's political and economic calendar," she said.

Liberal Leader Charles Milliard called his party the only federalist option and urged voters who want to stop a PQ government to vote strategically. He warned that a PQ minority would go looking for referendum support among other parties. "One party that Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon won't be calling up is Liberal Party of Quebec, because we're proudly federalist and not ashamed to say it," he said in Saint-Victor, adding that the Liberal vote was likely "underestimated" in some regions.

Duhaime told supporters he hopes to win at least 12 seats, enough for official party status, after being shut out in 2022, and has promised to act as a "guard dog" for taxpayers and to try to block a referendum. In Montreal, Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal made a final appeal to progressive sovereigntists uneasy with the "austerity" proposed by the PQ and other parties, including the Conservatives. "Send a signal that not all of Quebec has swung to the right or turned conservative," she said.

Whatever the outcome, the legislature will look very different. The PQ won only three seats in 2022, its lowest total since its founding in 1968, while the CAQ took 90 of 125 seats that year, according to a Canadian Press campaign roundup. This time, five parties could elect members for the first time in 50 years.

Polls open Monday from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. across 127 electoral divisions, and preliminary results will be posted from 8 p.m., Élections Québec says. About 1.6 million electors, or 25.59 per cent, already voted at advance polls between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1, compared with 24.8 per cent in 2022. Voters must show one accepted piece of ID: a health insurance card, driver's licence, Canadian passport, Indian status card or Canadian Forces identification card.