PQ wins Quebec with a minority as the CAQ is wiped out and Fréchette loses her seat

The Parti Québécois will form Quebec’s next government, but without the majority it was chasing. Preliminary results from Élections Québec, with 99.7 per cent of polling stations reporting early Tuesday, had the PQ elected or leading in 59 of the National Assembly’s 127 seats, five short of the 64 needed for a majority. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, becomes premier-designate four years after leading the sovereigntist party to just three seats in the 2022 election.

The Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard was elected or leading in 40 seats and will form the Official Opposition for a third straight election, CityNews Montreal reported. Éric Duhaime’s Quebec Conservatives took 19 seats, the party’s first seats won at the ballot box and enough for official party status, with Duhaime carrying Bellechasse with about 64 per cent of the vote. Québec solidaire won nine. The Coalition Avenir Québec, which won 90 seats under François Legault in 2022, was shut out.

The popular vote was badly split. The PQ took 28.0 per cent, the Liberals 24.3, the Conservatives 20.7, the CAQ 13.3 and Québec solidaire 12.4, according to Élections Québec’s preliminary count; the CAQ outpolled QS but did not win a seat. Radio-Canada noted that no party has ever taken power in Quebec with so low a share, the previous floor being the 31.9 per cent that brought Pauline Marois’s PQ minority to office in 2012. Preliminary turnout was 67.05 per cent, slightly above 2022’s 66.15 per cent. Élections Québec says results become official after the addition of the votes, which in most ridings takes place the day after the election.

Outgoing premier Christine Fréchette lost her own race in Trois-Rivières, where the PQ’s Jean Pellerin led her by fewer than 500 votes in the preliminary count. Fréchette, who had represented the South Shore riding of Sanguinet since 2022, had been premier for just under six months after succeeding Legault in April. “Quebecers wanted change, and I respect their choice,” she told supporters, saying she accepted full responsibility for the result, CityNews reported. She has vowed to stay on as CAQ leader, according to The Globe and Mail.

Speaking to supporters in Montreal, St-Pierre Plamondon said “a new political cycle is beginning, and a new chapter in our history is opening for our nation in the years ahead,” and pledged to rebuild Quebecers’ confidence in their government. Radio-Canada reported that he confirmed an economic update will be presented this fall and reiterated his intention to hold a referendum on independence.

That promise now depends on the rest of the legislature. St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged a referendum during his first term but not before U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029. With a minority, the PQ would need support from other parties or individual members to trigger a vote, and the Liberals and Conservatives both oppose one and have vowed to block it, the Globe reported. It remains uncertain whether Québec solidaire, which could hold the balance of power, would support the PQ’s referendum ambitions. Radio-Canada pointed out that a minority government usually lasts no more than about 18 months, while Trump has three years left in his term. Polls put support for independence at about 30 per cent.

Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on X, writing that “building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada” and that he looked forward to working with him to support businesses and workers hit by tariffs, create jobs, end homelessness and build more homes. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe also sent congratulations. The BBC said the result could set up confrontations with Ottawa over immigration and the monarchy: St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed to fight any immigration increases mandated by Ottawa and to cut funding for the lieutenant-governor’s office, a move likely to face legal challenges. The vote also comes two weeks before Alberta’s own referendum on separation.

The coming weeks will bring judicial recounts, the swearing-in of members and the naming of a cabinet. The 44th legislature is set to open Nov. 17 with the premier’s opening speech, Radio-Canada reported; that speech would normally follow one by Lieutenant-Governor Manon Jeannotte, but St-Pierre Plamondon said during the campaign that she would not be welcome.

Sources: Élections Québec; Radio-Canada; The Globe and Mail; CityNews Montreal (PQ victory); CityNews Montreal (Fréchette concession); BBC News.