Thanksgiving turkey dinner for four will cost about 10 per cent more this year, Dalhousie lab estimates

Canadian families planning a classic Thanksgiving dinner should expect a bigger bill this year. A traditional turkey meal for two adults and two children is projected to cost $35.72, up $3.24 or 10.0 per cent from last year, according to Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, Retail Insider reported on Tuesday. That is a sharp change from 2025, when the lab’s turkey basket barely moved, rising 0.6 per cent from $32.30 in 2024 to $32.48.

The lab priced four menus with identical side dishes: potatoes, carrots, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie, cranberries, stuffing and gravy. Turkey remains the cheapest centrepiece at $35.72, with ham close behind at $36.37. A lamb dinner comes in at $80.47 and a lobster dinner at $88.14, though Grocery Business noted those two depend heavily on the cut chosen, the size of the lobster and local promotions.

Most of the turkey-meal increase comes from three places. The bird itself rises from $10.43 to $12.53, adding $2.10; a pound of carrots goes from $0.91 to $1.65, adding $0.74; and the five other sides add about $0.40 on an assumed 2.8 per cent increase. The 10-pound bag of potatoes stays at $6.99. The carrot jump comes with a caveat from the report: last year’s basket used a promotional per-pound price, while this year’s figure is half the median price of a two-pound bag, so the change does not show 81 per cent inflation on a comparable product. The Financial Post reported that increases for the ham, lamb and lobster meals stem partly from reconstructing their past prices using the overall food consumer price index.

“Families got a break in 2025, with the cost of our turkey basket barely changing. This year, our estimate points to a much larger increase,” said Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of the lab. “An extra $3.24 may appear modest, but for households watching every grocery dollar, it matters.” His colleague Janet Music said the estimate was based on advertised prices only, and that shoppers who visit stores in person may find unadvertised deals or markdowns that bring their final bill below the lab’s figures.

The estimate arrives as grocery inflation cools without prices falling. The Financial Post, citing Statistics Canada consumer price data, reported that grocery price growth dropped below the overall inflation rate in August for the first time since July 2024, with store-bought food up 2.8 per cent from a year earlier after a 3.1 per cent rise in July. Food costs are still up 29 per cent since August 2021. The lab’s report put it plainly: “Despite the slowdown in food inflation, the Thanksgiving meal is a reminder that pressure on consumers’ wallets remains very real in 2026.”

For hosts who want to buy Canadian, experts interviewed by The Canadian Press say the traditional menu is already largely homegrown. “Thanksgiving is really a harvest feast or harvest festival and coincides with peak agricultural production in Canada,” said Paul van der Werf, an adjunct professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School, noting that Canada is the world’s second-biggest cranberry producer. CP reported that Ontario alone produced 45 per cent of the country’s turkey in 2025, according to Statistics Canada, and that potato production hit an all-time high in 2024. The gaps are mostly in the pantry: Canada does not grow cinnamon or black pepper or produce olive oil, and much sugar is refined from imported cane, though sugar beets grown in southern Alberta are processed in Taber, Alta.

Jeff Stewart, executive director of the non-profit Food Day Canada and a chef in Elora, Ont., suggested planning the menu backwards: walk the grocery store or farmers market first, see what is in season, then build the meal around it. “Whatever is in abundance is what you’re going to find the best prices on,” he said. Fall brings pumpkins, squash, potatoes, apples and pears, while out-of-season fruit such as blueberries, whose harvest ended last month, is likely to cost more as an import. He also said convenience foods such as boxed stuffing or store-bought mashed potatoes can make it hard to know how much of a dish is truly local.

Sources: Retail Insider; Grocery Business; Financial Post; The Canadian Press via Winnipeg Free Press.