Putin wants a Trump–Xi summit to decide Ukraine's fate — with Zelensky not invited

The proposal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a summit next month with U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to negotiate an end to the four-year-old Ukraine conflict that would favour Moscow, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

According to the Journal, Putin first floated the idea in an October 9 telephone call with Trump — the same call that produced the U.S.-Russian diesel deal announced earlier this month. The Kremlin has suggested the three leaders meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, set for November 18–19 in Shenzhen, China.

Crucially, the proposed format would exclude Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a move the Journal said would be expected to alarm many European countries. A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter was cited by the paper as a source for the account of the October 9 call.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed to the Journal that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. "There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place," he said.

A senior U.S. official told the Journal that Trump had not agreed to such a summit but could be receptive to the idea, given his push to end the war. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and neither did the Chinese Embassy in Washington, according to the reports. Chinese officials are reportedly concerned the meeting could overshadow China's role at APEC.

The context: a weekend of rupture

The proposal lands at the end of a weekend that has steadily deepened the rift between Washington and Kyiv. On Friday, Trump waived key Russia sanctions two days before they were to take effect, saying a waiver keeps Moscow at the negotiating table. Zelensky called the waiver a "sanctions blackout" and, in an interview published Sunday, said it seemed Trump was pushing Ukraine toward capitulation — his own characterization, not a verified fact.

On NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Zelensky said waiving the sanctions would strengthen Putin's war effort and that if the U.S. sided with Moscow it would be a "historic mistake," according to reporting on the interview. He also said U.S.–Ukraine intelligence sharing had resumed after being "blocked for some period of time." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then warned the Ukrainian president to "be careful" in his public statements about U.S. support, the reports said.

Zelensky also spoke Sunday with Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about next steps in diplomacy, according to his own social-media posts.

What it means for Canada

A Moscow-favoured settlement negotiated over Ukraine's head would land hard in Canada. Canada is home to one of the world's largest Ukrainian diasporas, and Ottawa has been among Ukraine's firmest backers since 2022. Any deal that trades away Ukrainian interests for a ceasefire would test that support — and the unity pitch Prime Minister Mark Carney has been making at home.

Then there is the oil. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday, the highest since May, partly on the war's escalating energy strikes — Ukraine's drone barrage on St. Petersburg hit oil terminals overnight Saturday, and Russia keeps hitting Ukraine's grid. A trilateral summit that even hints at easing sanctions or restoring Russian energy flows could swing crude prices, and with them Canadian gas prices, inflation and the Bank of Canada's room to move ahead of its October 28 rate decision.