Carney's pipeline won't bring back the oil-boom jobs. He says so himself.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is betting a new pipeline can help revive Canada's oil industry, boost its production and exports, and reduce its dependence on the United States — but bringing back jobs will be much harder, Reuters reports from Fort McMurray, Alberta.

In the Alberta oil hub — nicknamed Fort McMoney in its heyday more than a decade ago — the tens of thousands of oil-field jobs that powered the last boom are unlikely to return, even if Carney gets his pipeline, according to industry forecasts and nearly a dozen interviews with company officials, workers, politicians and academics conducted by Reuters.

The pipeline Carney has backed would transport 1 million barrels of crude oil a day to a port on the Pacific coast, expanding export capacity to Asia.

Asked by Reuters what the pipeline would mean for the region's economy, Carney — a former central banker — cautioned against anticipating a return to the oil-boom days. "I wouldn't use the term 'boom,'" he said during a visit to Fort McMurray this month. "I would use 'sustained growth'."

The reason is automation. Much of the growth in oil-sands output is likely to come from automation and efficiency gains rather than large-scale hiring — and an August labour forecast by industry group Energy Safety Canada projects oil-sands employment will fall by 920 jobs, or 4%, by 2035, even as production grows 6%.

That leaves Carney politically exposed on two fronts, Reuters notes: critics on the left say his push to fast-track the project's regulatory approval risks sacrificing the environment, while those on the right argue deregulation should deliver faster economic growth, higher salaries and more oil jobs.

The timing matters. Low job growth could also further fuel Alberta's separatist movement — though Albertans vote Monday in a referendum that is expected to fail, according to Reuters.