Three days from the B.C. vote, the Conservatives still lead — and today is the last day to vote early

The new numbers

Mainstreet Research's latest poll, released Wednesday (fieldwork Oct. 17–18, 907 respondents by automated phone, ±3.3 points), puts the B.C. Conservatives at 41.7 per cent, the NDP at 36.0, and the Greens at 14.6 — with CentreBC at 2.6, OneBC at 5.0 and 10.6 undecided, according to bcballot.ca's poll tracker. Compared with Mainstreet's own Sep. 30–Oct. 1 poll, the Conservatives are down three points and the Greens up 3.4. A caveat: Mainstreet's 14.6 per cent Green read is well above other pollsters — likely a house-method effect from its automated-phone approach rather than the race's centre of gravity.

The race's centre

Other recent polls cluster around a tighter story: Innovative Research Group (Oct. 15–19, decided voters) has the Conservatives at 43 and the NDP at 38, with the Greens at 12; Angus Reid (Oct. 15–19) has it 46–43 with the Greens at 8. The seat models lean Conservative on vote efficiency: The Writ's tracker, updated Oct. 20, has the Conservatives ahead by 2.5 points and leading in 50 seats to the NDP's 42, winning the most seats in 73 per cent of 10,000 simulations. Poliwave projects 51 Conservative seats (90 per cent range 43–63) to 40 for the NDP and 2 for the Greens.

How to vote

Advance voting ends TODAY: polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time, and you can vote at any advance location in the province. Vote-by-mail requests closed Oct. 18. Election day is Saturday, Oct. 24, with polls open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. PT. There are 355 candidates running — up from 322 in 2024. And don't expect certainty on election night: the final count is planned for Nov. 6–10, and 2024's tight finish is the precedent for patience.