Final polls give the B.C. Conservatives a five-point lead with two days to vote — and the Greens have surged back

The final numbers

The Conservatives enter the final days of the B.C. election campaign with a five-point lead over the NDP, according to Leger's final poll, released Thursday. The online survey, conducted October 20 to 22 among 1,072 B.C. residents, found 44 per cent of decided voters backing the Conservatives compared with 39 per cent for the NDP. Green support rose to 13 per cent, up four points from Leger's October 9–12 poll and back to its September level, while the share of undecided voters fell to 6 per cent from 12 per cent. Since September, Conservative support has grown five points and NDP support three, stretching the gap from two points to five. A probability sample of 1,072 would carry a margin of error of no more than ±3.0 points, 19 times out of 20, Leger notes.

Where the votes sit

The province-wide lead masks sharp regional splits. Leger found the Conservatives ahead 44 to 40 in Metro Vancouver, effectively tied 39 to 40 with the NDP on Vancouver Island, and ahead 46 to 36 everywhere else — the Interior and north remain Conservative country. Demographically, the Conservatives lead men by 12 points and voters aged 35 to 54 by 14, while the NDP holds a narrow two-point edge among women. The Greens draw 20 per cent among voters aged 18 to 34. Leger warns that a province-wide lead "does not necessarily translate into the same advantage in every riding," making the Greens' one-in-ten share potentially decisive in close contests.

What the forecasters say

Seat projections have hardened around a Conservative majority. Vote-scope, updated October 22, projects 57 of the legislature's 93 seats for the Conservatives (range 53–64) with a greater than 99 per cent chance of a majority, against 34 for the NDP and 2 for the Greens. Its projected vote share sits at 42.8 per cent for the Conservatives, 36.7 for the NDP and 12.3 for the Greens. On Polymarket, traders put the Conservative win probability at 92 per cent.

The turnout question

The NDP's path runs through turnout. Angus Reid's October 15–19 survey found 73 per cent of Conservative voters "very certain" of their choice, against 54 per cent of NDP voters, and the Conservatives retaining 89 per cent of their 2024 voters compared with 74 per cent for the NDP. Advance voting closed Wednesday with about 711,000 ballots cast in the first five days — down 9 per cent from 2024.

The Canadian angle

British Columbians vote Saturday, October 24, in an early election Premier David Eby called himself — a gamble that could hand power to Lorne Doerkson's Conservatives and reshape Western Canadian politics. But don't bank the result on election night: in 2024, the final count flipped Surrey-Guildford nine days after election day, and mail-in ballots take days to tally. The ridings to watch are in Metro Vancouver, where the two parties are effectively tied.