Chris Alexander quits Toronto’s mayoral race, leaving a Chow–Bradford duel as a new poll shows the gap narrowing

Former federal Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander has dropped out of the race to become Toronto’s next mayor, saying his path to victory “was not obvious and perhaps not there at all.” He made the announcement at his campaign headquarters on Tuesday morning, half an hour before advance voting began, CityNews reported, and said he would not endorse another candidate.

“With the latest poll that came out this morning, we haven’t taken our numbers beyond what they were at the start of our campaign and we wanted to take this difficult decision before advance polls open so that all Torontonians have a chance to vote for someone who is going to see their campaign through to the end,” Alexander said, according to CP24. Asked why he did not stay in until the end, he replied: “I’m a realist.”

Polls had consistently put him a distant third behind incumbent Olivia Chow and Coun. Brad Bradford. A Nanos Research survey for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, published Tuesday, found 52.4 per cent of decided voters backing Chow, 42.6 per cent Bradford and four per cent Alexander. A Liaison Strategies poll of 1,000 Torontonians conducted Oct. 3 and 4 had Alexander at nine per cent, with Chow at 48 per cent and Bradford at 40 per cent among decided and leaning voters, CBC News reported.

Alexander will not disappear from voters’ view entirely. The deadline to formally withdraw was Aug. 21, so his name is likely to remain on the ballot, CP24 said, and CBC noted that ballots are printed well in advance and he could still draw votes on election day. Alexander told reporters that one campaign had earlier asked him to withdraw but that he decided without “succumbing to anyone’s pressure,” and he said there were no behind-the-scenes conversations or “quid pro quos” for a post-election role. He plans to return to the private sector. With his exit, 52 people remain on the list of candidates for mayor.

Alexander served as MP for Ajax–Pickering from 2011 to 2015 and was immigration minister in Stephen Harper’s government from 2013 to 2015, CBC reported. Before politics he worked in Canada’s foreign service and was the first resident Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan, from 2003 to 2005. Chow thanked him for “some really good ideas on like building supportive housing,” CP24 reported, while Bradford courted his supporters: “To everyone who supported Chris, and to everyone who looked at this race hoping for something better than what we’ve got, this campaign is your home.”

Political strategist Andrew Tumilty, a senior adviser at Texture Communications who ran former mayor John Tory’s 2018 and 2022 war rooms, told CBC News the exit cements a two-way race. “What it does for Brad Bradford is it offers another opportunity to close that gap in the last few weeks,” he said. “For Mayor Chow and her supporters, I think it makes it very clear that this could be quite a close race.” He cautioned that it would be “dangerous” for Bradford’s campaign to assume Alexander’s remaining support will move to him. Toronto Metropolitan University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki said Alexander, who entered the race in July, “firstly had to remind people who he was and then try to un-remind them” of things he said in office, including his “barbaric cultural practices” bill.

The first poll taken after his withdrawal suggests a tighter contest. A Forum Research telephone survey of 1,604 Toronto residents conducted Oct. 6, after Tuesday night’s debate, put Chow at 46 per cent and Bradford at 42 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with 12 per cent choosing someone else, CityNews reported. The firm’s Sept. 25 poll had Chow ahead by 11 points, 46 per cent to 35 per cent. Forum gave a margin of error of 2.45 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

At that debate, hosted by the United Way at Toronto Metropolitan University, the two went after each other on housing, affordability and transit, CityNews said. Bradford said only 1,500 of the 65,000 purpose-built rental homes Chow promised by 2030 have been built; Chow accused him of voting to double development charges while he was head of the committee. “You created the problems you’re now campaigning to fix!” she said.

The candidates meet again Wednesday from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. at the University of Toronto Scarborough’s Highland Hall, in a debate hosted by the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization where transit is expected to dominate, CityNews reported. Advance voting runs until Oct. 11, and election day is Oct. 26.

Sources: CityNews (Alexander withdrawal); CP24; CBC News (Alexander withdrawal); CBC News (analysis); CityNews (Forum Research poll); CityNews (United Way debate); CityNews (Scarborough debate preview).