Canada
Chow leads Bradford 51–46 in new Toronto poll as advance voting shatters records
A five-point race with 13 days to go — and 222,550 early votes already cast, nearly double the 2023 by-election.
Published: October 13, 2026 · Updated: October 13, 2026 · 1 min read
A Liaison Strategies survey released Tuesday puts Mayor Olivia Chow ahead of Brad Bradford 51 per cent to 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with 3 per cent for others — 13 days before the Oct. 26 election. The poll of 1,000 Torontonians (Oct. 8–9, IVR, ±3.1 points) shows a sharp renter/owner split: Chow leads renters 57–40, Bradford leads homeowners 50–45.
Separately, the City of Toronto announced Tuesday that 222,550 people voted during six days of advance voting (Oct. 6–11) — a record, well above the 129,745 in the 2023 by-election.
The renter/owner divide maps directly onto the housing affordability debate dominating the campaign — and the bike-lane fight, with provincial crews removing lanes this morning, is now live inside it.
One caveat: it's a single poll, 13 days out, with a ±3.1-point margin — a five-point lead is real but not comfortable.
What matters
What happened
Liaison poll (Oct. 8–9): Chow 51%, Bradford 46%; a record 222,550 advance votes were cast Oct. 6–11.
Why it matters
A five-point race with two weeks to go in Canada's biggest municipal contest; record turnout signals an engaged electorate.
What we know
Renters break for Chow (57–40), homeowners for Bradford (50–45); the poll's margin of error is ±3.1 points.
What we don’t
Whether the lead holds through election day; how the remaining undecided voters break.
What’s next
Election day is Oct. 26; watch whether the bike-lane removals move the numbers.
Sources
- Liaison Strategies · other
- City of Toronto · other
TorontoOlivia ChowBrad Bradfordmunicipal electionpolls
Newsletter
News. Context. What matters.
One essential briefing, written for people who would rather understand the story than scroll it.
Unsubscribe anytime. We don’t sell addresses.
Recommended
Canada
Ottawa tables bill to let Canadians request assisted dying in advance — and drops the mental-illness expansion
Bill C-41 would let adults diagnosed with an incurable illness that will take away their decision-making capacity consent to medical assistance in dying in advance, while the government says it will not proceed with eligibility based solely on mental illness.
Canada
Trump says a Canada tariff deal is coming 'pretty soon' — but offers no terms
At a Michigan border rally Sunday, the U.S. president predicted the trade dispute would be settled soon while repeating his claim Canada has been "ripping off" the U.S. — and Ottawa did not immediately respond.
Canada
B.C. Conservatives win majority government — and David Eby is stepping down as NDP leader
CTV News declared a Conservative majority Saturday night as interim leader Lorne Doerkson's party surged to a commanding lead, ending nine years of NDP government and giving B.C. its first Conservative government in nearly a century.