OPEC+ core group holds November oil output steady as Gulf supply stays far below quota

Seven of the biggest producers in the OPEC+ alliance agreed Sunday to keep oil output targets unchanged for November, holding the line even as the Iran war keeps benchmark Brent crude above US$100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met virtually on Oct. 4 and decided to keep November’s required production at September’s level, the OPEC secretariat said in a statement. The group reiterated its commitment to full conformity with its Declaration of Cooperation and will meet again on Nov. 1.

The decision was widely expected. Further changes to output policy are unlikely until next year, Reuters reported, in part because Gulf members have been pumping well below their targets as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts exports, which have fluctuated between 60 and 80 per cent of normal levels in recent months.

“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters. “That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota. Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”

The gap is large. The seven core members pumped 25 million barrels a day in August, up 630,000 barrels a day from July but still roughly five million barrels a day below prewar levels in February, according to OPEC data cited by Reuters. Brent has climbed from about US$73 a barrel before the war began in late February, and The Associated Press noted that the meeting came with the benchmark still above US$100. Prices did dip on Friday after European leaders agreed to a U.S. request to release diesel reserves.

The war has also stalled the group’s review of members’ production capacity, which OPEC+ needs to set 2027 quotas, Reuters reported, citing industry sources. The broader alliance still has about two million barrels a day of cuts in place covering most members, and any changes to output are unlikely before 2027, the sources said. Most of the target increases OPEC+ announced this year have stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict.

With producers standing pat, consuming nations are leaning on stockpiles. G7 leaders, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, agreed on Oct. 2 to a coordinated release through the International Energy Agency of 100 million barrels over four months, with a front-loaded diesel release in the first 20 days, according to their joint statement. The leaders also pledged to co-ordinate refinery maintenance to avoid simultaneous shutdowns and said they stand ready to adjust their measures as needed.

For Canadians, the cost is already visible at the pump. An analysis by the Calgary Herald and Financial Post estimated that drivers of some popular vehicles may have paid roughly 16 per cent more for regular gasoline in the first nine months of 2026 than in 2025, or up to about $300 more for a Ford F-150 driver depending on the province, with Ontario seeing the steepest increase. Alberta suspended its 13-cent-a-litre provincial fuel tax on Oct. 1 under a rule that removes the levy when North American oil stays above US$90 a barrel.

Relief may be limited even so. Suzanne Gray, an analyst with the data firm Kalibrate, told the Herald that low gasoline supplies and refinery maintenance in the U.S. Midwest could keep upward pressure on prices in Western Canada. “Pump prices are still going to be probably a bit higher than what people would like to see,” she said.

For businesses that run on diesel and for households budgeting for winter heating, Sunday’s decision means the outlook rests less on OPEC+ policy than on how quickly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and how far emergency stock releases go. The producers’ next scheduled check-in is Nov. 1.

Sources: OPEC; The Business Standard / Reuters; The Washington Post / The Associated Press; Prime Minister of Canada; Calgary Herald.