PBO pegs Alto high-speed rail construction at $75-billion to $113-billion

Canada’s proposed Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail line could cost between $75-billion and $113-billion to build, according to a Parliamentary Budget Officer report released Thursday — higher than the $60- to $90-billion construction range regularly cited by Alto, the Crown corporation leading the project.

The PBO analysis, prepared after a Senate finance committee request, draws on international per-kilometre construction costs and assumed route characteristics for a baseline of about 850 kilometres excluding a potential Kingston stop. Alto has described its own figure as preliminary and says a more refined business case is due in the first half of 2027. Both ranges cover building the dedicated line only; the PBO said a future report will examine operating costs and whether ridership revenue can cover them. Tunnel and elevated segments drive much of the bill: the watchdog put roughly $169-million on each extra kilometre of tunnel and $153-million on each kilometre of elevated structure, citing projects that include a planned Mount Royal tunnel into downtown Montreal.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan said Canada’s newer approval and expropriation laws may blunt some of the overrun risks seen in U.S. and U.K. projects, but geography — Montreal tunnelling and Canadian Shield rock — remains a major escalator. Alto spokesperson Philippe Archambault said the PBO’s range is “similar to and consistent with Alto’s working estimate” despite different methods, and argued more pessimistic public scenarios are not backed by international experience. Conservative transport critic Dan Albas said his party would cancel the project; Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon has previously defended it as nation-building infrastructure, with Ottawa–Montreal eyed first and construction possible as soon as 2029 if cabinet approves.

For taxpayers, the report sharpens the fiscal debate before a final investment decision: construction alone could top $100-billion, while earlier internal Alto material reported by The Globe and Mail put combined construction, rolling stock and 40-year operations near $150-billion against about $105-billion in projected revenue — numbers the next PBO ridership study will test in public.

Sources: CBC News; The Globe and Mail.