What do the US-China tariff cuts mean for Canadian exporters?

For now, almost nothing changes at the border: the US-China lists are recommendations, not tariff cuts, and neither government has published new rates or a start date. If they are implemented, though, American farm, seafood, forestry and coal shippers would gain ground in China against Canadian rivals that still face Chinese duties, while the Chinese consumer goods getting easier US access are products Washington says it rarely buys from anyone else.

Key facts

• On Sept. 27–28, 2026, the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce published reciprocal “30-for-30” lists worth roughly US$30 billion each, valued on 2024 trade: 1,619 tariff lines of US goods bound for China and 77 categories of Chinese goods bound for the US.
• China’s commerce ministry says more than 90 per cent of listed products would shed all additional bilateral tariffs and move to most-favoured-nation rates, once both sides complete domestic legal procedures.
• China’s list includes canola seed, oil and meal, pork, beef, lobster, crab, cold-water shrimp, salmon, peas, lentils, wheat, barley, logs, softwood lumber, maple syrup and coal. Soybeans, other than planting seed, are not on it.
• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Oct. 1 there is no timeline for the cuts. The broader US-China truce now runs to Jan. 10, 2027.
• China’s suspension of tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab expires after Dec. 31, 2026, while Canadian canola oil (100 per cent) and pork (25 per cent) still face Chinese tariffs.

What happened?

Days after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, the two governments released product lists under their US-China Board of Trade, set up at President Donald Trump’s May summit in Beijing. The White House said both sides would “consider” the lists “with a view toward providing reduced tariff treatment” in line with their domestic laws. China’s Ministry of Commerce went further, saying more than 90 per cent of the products would return to most-favoured-nation treatment and that the two sides would cut tariffs at the same time after finishing their legal processes. Serious Pick reported the lists on Sept. 29.

According to the terms of reference, values were set using 2024 bilateral trade, and the lists are not expected to be adjusted more than once a year. In a statement, Greer said China’s list covers about 30 per cent of US exports to China. A White House fact sheet added that China will import at least 10 million metric tonnes of US coal in 2027 and again in 2028. Chips, electric vehicles and batteries were left out, the Associated Press reported.

Since then, US officials have stressed that nothing is automatic. Greer said at the G20 trade ministers’ meeting in Milwaukee that there is no date for the cuts and that “we have to stick to our legal processes,” Bloomberg reported. Trade lawyers at Covington & Burling note that changing tariffs imposed under Section 301 requires a notice-and-comment process that could take several months.

Who is affected in Canada?

Canada’s main exposure is in China. The unofficial English translation of China’s import list published by USTR shows many of Canada’s key exports to China listed as US products in line for lower duties:

• Canola and grains: canola seed, canola oil and canola meal, along with wheat, barley, peas and lentils. Canadian canola oil still faces a 100 per cent Chinese tariff, while canola seed now pays a combined rate of about 15 per cent.
• Pork: fresh, frozen and processed pork lines are listed. Canadian pork still pays an extra 25 per cent.
• Seafood: lobster, crab, cold-water shrimp, salmon, scallops, clams and sea cucumbers. Certain other Canadian fish and seafood still face a 25 per cent tariff.
• Forestry: coniferous logs and sawn lumber, including spruce, fir, hem-fir and Douglas fir. Wood pulp, British Columbia’s biggest forest export to China, does not appear on the list.
• Coal: coking and other coal, backed by China’s pledge to buy US coal in 2027 and 2028.

An Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada briefing note confirms China cut its combined tariff on Canadian canola seed to 15 per cent on March 1 and suspended tariffs on canola meal, peas, lobster and crab until the end of 2026, leaving duties on canola oil, pork and other seafood in place. If US versions of those same products move to most-favoured-nation rates, Canadian suppliers would be competing against American shippers in China while paying higher duties.

On the US side of the deal, the US import list covers toys, microwave ovens, toasters, coffee makers, Christmas lights and ornaments, children’s car seats, highchairs, bed linen and sports balls. Canadian firms selling similar goods into the US could face cheaper Chinese competition once cuts apply. But Greer described these as products the US “generally does not import from other countries,” which suggests the overlap is narrow. Canadian exporters’ larger US problem remains Washington’s own measures against Canada, including the import bans on Canadian alcohol, whey and motorcycles that took effect Sept. 29.

What does it cost?

The federal briefing note puts Canada’s agri-food and seafood exports to China at $9.6 billion in 2024. In 2025, after China’s tariffs hit, Canada shipped $1.5 billion of canola seed, $288 million of canola meal, $877 million of fish and seafood and $354 million of pork to China. The year before, fish and seafood had been worth $1.3 billion and pork $469 million. The Globe and Mail reports that canola exports to China were about $5 billion in 2024 and lobster close to $570 million, and that live lobster exports to China fell by half in 2025.

Resources are exposed too. Natural Resources Canada says Canada exported $2.6 billion of coal to China in 2025. B.C. government forest export data show about $287 million of softwood lumber and $217 million of logs went to China, including Hong Kong and Macau, in 2025. Crude oil, which Global Affairs Canada credits for most of the 14.7 per cent jump in Canadian exports to China in 2025, is not on the list.

For US-China trade overall, the effect is modest. Capital Economics estimated that the average US tariff on Chinese goods would fall only from about 22 per cent to roughly 20.5 per cent, compared with about 11 per cent before Trump returned to office, according to the AP.

What happens next?

Washington first has to publish the recommendations and run its public process before making a legal determination, Greer said, according to the South China Morning Post. International Trade Today reported that he also ruled out relief from tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term. China says it will cut its tariffs at the same time as the US. Meanwhile, the Busan truce, which was due to end Nov. 10, now runs to Jan. 10, 2027, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News.

For Canada, the calendar is crowded. The Globe reports that a Canada-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission meeting is expected in China near the end of October, and that Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to meet Xi at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on Nov. 18–19. Pulse Canada warned that pea shippers may hold back vessels after early November unless the Dec. 31 expiry is extended. Ottawa’s surtax relief on some Chinese steel also ends with the year, while Washington, with Canada-US talks stalled, has pressed Ottawa to align its tariffs with US duties on China. Deloitte already expects Canadian exports to fall in the fourth quarter, and China’s own growth slowdown is weighing on demand.

Bottom line

The US-China deal is a list of intentions, not yet a tariff schedule. Its main risk for Canada is that it could widen the price gap between American and Canadian canola, pork, seafood, forest products and coal in China just as Ottawa’s own tariff relief from Beijing comes up for renewal. The decisions that matter most for Canadian exporters are likely to come around the Shenzhen summit and the Dec. 31 and Jan. 10 deadlines.

Sources: White House — US-China Board of Trade lists; White House — Terms of Reference for the 30-for-30 framework; White House — Sept. 25 fact sheet; White House — US import list; USTR — Greer statement; USTR — China import list (unofficial translation); China Ministry of Commerce (in Chinese); Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada — Question Period note; Natural Resources Canada — Mineral trade; Global Affairs Canada — Canada’s merchandise trade 2025; B.C. government — Forest product exports, December 2025; The Globe and Mail; Associated Press via PBS; Bloomberg Law; South China Morning Post via The Star; International Trade Today; NBC News; Covington & Burling.

This article is general information and is not investment advice.